Voting after the bombing: Can terrorist attacks change the outcome of democratic elections?

Economists have recently turned their attention to the effects of terrorism. One much debated effect of terrorist attacks is its impact on the results of democratic elections. We use the electoral consequences of the terrorist attacks of the 11-M in Madrid to analyze this issue. We consider this particular experiment since the attack took place only three days before the 2004 Congressional Election, which allows the use of credible identification criteria. In particular, we use the advance voting by Spanish residents abroad, who cast their vote before the terrorist attack, to identify the effect of the bombing. We exploit this macabre natural experiment to run a difference-in-differences estimation using data on three consecutive Congressional elections. Our empirical results indicate that a terrorist attack can have a large impact on the outcome of democratic elections.Difference-in-differences, terrorism, elections, natural experiment

Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.Ethnic diversity, conflict, indices of diversity

Fighting against Malaria: Prevent wars while waiting for the "miraculous" vaccine

The World Health Organization estimates that 300 million clinical cases of malaria occur annually and observed that during the 80's and part of the 90's its incidence increased. In this paper we explore the influence of refugees from civil wars on the incidence of malaria in the refugee-receiving countries. Using civil wars as an instrumental variable we show that for each 1,000 refugees there are between 2,000 and 2,700 cases of malaria in the refugee receiving country. On average 13% of the cases of malaria reported by the WHO are caused by forced migration as a consequence of civil wars.Civil wars, forced migration, economic impact

The curse of aid

Foreign aid provides a windfall of resources to recipient countries and may result in the same rent seeking behavior as documented in the “curse of natural resources” literature. In this paper we discuss this effect and document its magnitude. Using data for 108 recipient countries in the period 1960 to 1999, we find that foreign aid has a negative impact on democracy. In particular, if the foreign aid over GDP that a country receives over a period of five years reaches the 75th percentile in the sample, then a 10-point index of democracy is reduced between 0.6 and one point, a large effect. For comparison, we also measure the effect of oil rents on political institutions. The fall in democracy if oil revenues reach the 75th percentile is smaller, (0.02). Aid is a bigger curse than oil.Foreign aid, democracy, conditionality

For public service or money: Understanding geographical imbalances in the health workforce in Ethiopia

Geographical imbalances in the health workforce have been a consistent feature of nearly all health systems, and especially in developing countries. In this paper we investigate the willingness to work in a rural area among final year nursing and medical students in Ethiopia. Analyzing data obtained from contingent valuation questions, we find that household consumption and the student’s motivation to help the poor, which is our proxy for intrinsic motivation, are the main determinants of willingness to work in a rural area. We investigate whoe is willing to help the poor and find that women are significantly more likely than men. Other variables, including a rich set of psychosocial characteristics, are not significant. Finally, we carry out some simulation on how much it would cost to make the entire cohort of starting nurses and doctors chooseto take up a rural post.Health care delivery, health workers, labour supply, public service

Finite mixture analysis of beauty-contest data using generalised beta distributions

This paper introduces a mixture model based on the beta distribution, without preestablished means and variances, to analyze a large set of Beauty-Contest data obtained from diverse groups of experiments (Bosch-Domenech et al. 2002). This model gives a better t of the experimental data, and more precision to the hypothesis that a large proportion of individuals follow a common pattern of reasoning, described as iterated best reply (degenerate), than mixture models based on the normal distribution. The analysis shows that the means of the distributions across the groups of experiments are pretty stable, while the proportions of choices at dierent levels of reasoning vary across groups.Keywords: Beauty-Contest experiments, decision theory, reasoning hierarchy, finite mixture distribution, beta distribution, EM algorithm.

Why ethnic fractionalization? Polarization, ethnic conflict and growth

This paper ia an attempt to clarify the relationship between fractionalization, polarization and conflict. The literature on the measurement of ethnic diversity has taken as given that the proper measure for heterogeneity can be calculated by using the fractionalization index. This index is widely used in industrial economics and, for empirical purposes, the ethnolinguistic fragmentation is ready available for regression exercises. Nevertheless the adequacy of a synthetic index of hetergeneity depends on the intrinsic characteristics of the heterogeneous dimension to be measured. In the case of ethnic diversity there is a very strong conflictive dimension. For this reason we argue that the measure of heterogeneity should be one of the class of polarization measures. In fact the intuition of the relationship between conflict and fractionalization do not hold for more than two groups. In contrast with the usual problem of polarization indices, which are of difficult empirical implementation without making some arbitrary choice of parameters, we show that the RQ index, proposed by Reynal-Querol (2002), is the only discrete polarization measure that satisfies the basic properties of polarization. Additionally we present a derivation of the RQ index from a simple rent seeking model. In the empirical section we show that while ethnic polarization has a positive effect on civil wars and, indirectly on growth, this effect is not present when we use ethnic fractionalization.Ethnic heterogeneity, civil wars, economic developement

Ciencias de la Biología y Agronomía

Este volumen I contiene 17 capítulos arbitrados que se ocupan de estos asuntos en Tópicos Selectos de Ciencias de la Biología y Agronomía, elegidos de entre las contribuciones, reunimos algunos investigadores y estudiantes. Se presenta un Estudio Comparativo de los Recursos Hidrológico-Forestales de la Microcuenca de la Laguna de Epatlan, Pue. (1993 a 2014); la Situación Actual de la Mancha de Asfalto en Maíz (Zea mays L.) en los Municipios de Jiquipilas y Ocozocoautla, Chiapas, México; las poblaciones sobresalientes de maíz de la raza Zapalote Chico, en la Región Istmeña de Oaxaca; Se indica el índice de área foliar de cultivo de Chile Poblano mediante dos métodos en condiciones protegidas; Esquivel, Urzúa y Ramírez exploran el efecto de la biofertilización con Azospirillum en el crecimiento y producción de Jitomate; esbozan su artículo sobre la determinación del nivel de Heterosis en híbridos de Maíz para la Comarca Lagunera; una investigación sobre la estabilización de semilla de Solanum lycopersicum durante el almacenamiento y estimulación de la germinación; acotan sobre el CTAB como una nueva opción para la detección de Huanglongbing en cítricos, plantean su evaluación sobre el aluminio y cómo afecta la vida de florero de Heliconia psittacorum; indican sobre el impacto del H-564C, como un híbrido de maíz con alta calidad de proteina para el trópico húmedo de México; presetan su investigación sobre la producción de Piña Cayena Lisa y MD2 (Ananas comosus L.) en condiciones de Loma Bonita, en Oaxaca; acotan sobre el efecto de coberteras como control biológico por conservación contra áfidos en Nogal Pecanero; esbozan sobre la caracterización de cuatro genotipos de Frijol Negro en Martínez de la Torre, Veracruz, México; presentan una caracterización hidroecológica de la microcuenca de Arroyo Prieto, Yuriría, Gto., y alternativas para su restauración ambiental; presentan su investigación sobre el efecto del hongo Beauveria bassiana sobre solubilización de fosfatos y la disponibilidad de fósforo en el suelo; plantean su investigación sobre la Germinación y regeneración in vitro de Epidendrum falcatum LINDL; esbozan su artículo sobre genotipos de frijol negro y su tolerancia a sequía terminal en Veracruz, México

A large sub-Neptune transiting the thick-disk M4 V TOI-2406

We thank the anonymous referee for their corrections and help in improving the paper. We warmly thank the entire technical staff of the Observatorio Astronomico Nacional at San Pedro Martir in Mexico for their unfailing support to SAINT-EX operations, namely: E. Cadena, T. Calvario, E. Colorado, B. Garcia, G. Guisa, A. Franco, L. Figueroa, B. Hernandez, J. Herrera, E. Lopez, E. Lugo, B. Martinez, J. M. Nunez, J. L. Ochoa, M. Pereyra, F. Quiroz, T. Verdugo, I. Zavala. B.V.R. thanks the Heising-Simons Foundation for support. Y.G.M.C acknowledges support from UNAM-PAPIIT IG-101321. B.-O. D. acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (PP00P2-163967 and PP00P2-190080). R.B. acknowledges the support from the Swiss National Science Foundation under grant P2BEP2_195285. M.N.G. acknowledges support from MIT's Kavli Institute as a Juan Carlos Torres Fellow. A.H.M.J.T acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement nffi 803193/BEBOP), from the MERAC foundation, and from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC; grant nffi ST/S00193X/1). T.D. acknowledges support from MIT's Kavli Institute as a Kavli postdoctoral fellow Part of this work received support from the National Centre for Competence in Research PlanetS, supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). The research leading to these results has received funding from the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation. TRAPPIST is funded by the Belgian Fund for Scientific Research (Fond National de la Recherche Scientifique, FNRS) under the grant FRFC 2.5.594.09.F, with the participation of the Swiss National Science Fundation (SNF). M.G. and E.J. are F.R.S.-FNRS Senior Research Associate. This publication benefits from the support of the French Community of Belgium in the context of the FRIA Doctoral Grant awarded to MT. We acknowledge the use of public TESS data from pipelines at the TESS Science Office and at the TESS Science Processing Operations Center. We acknowledge the use of public TESS Alert data from pipelines at the TESS Science Office and at the TESS Science Processing Operations Center. Resources supporting this work were provided by the NASA High-End Computing (HEC) Program through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) Division at Ames Research Center for the production of the SPOC data products. Funding for the TESS mission is provided by NASA's Science Mission Directorate. This research has made use of the Exoplanet Follow-up Observation Program website, which is operated by the California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under the Exoplanet Exploration Program. This paper includes data collected by the TESS mission that are publicly available from the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST). We thank the TESS GI program G03274 PI, Ryan Cloutier, for proposing the target of this work for 2-min-cadence observations in Sector 30. This work is based upon observations carried out at the Observatorio Astronomico Nacional on the Sierra de San Pedro Martir (OAN-SPM), Baja California, Mexico. This work makes use of observations from the LCOGT network. Part of the LCOGT telescope time was granted by NOIRLab through the Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP). MSIP is funded by NSF. This work includes data collected at the Vatican Advanced Technology Telescope (VATT) on Mt. Graham. This paper includes data taken on the EDEN telescope network. We acknowledge support from the Earths in Other Solar Systems Project (EOS) and Alien Earths (grant numbers NNX15AD94G and 80NSSC21K0593), sponsored by NASA. Some of the observations in the paper made use of the High-Resolution Imaging instrument Zorro (Gemini program GS-2020B-LP-105). Zorro was funded by the NASA Exoplanet Exploration Program and built at the NASA Ames Research Center by Steve B. Howell, Nic Scott, Elliott P. Horch, and Emmett Quigley. Zorro was mounted on the Gemini South telescope of the international Gemini Observatory, a program of NSF's OIR Lab, which is managed by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA) under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation. on behalf of the Gemini partnership: the National Science Foundation (United States), National Research Council (Canada), Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo (Chile), Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnologia e Innovacion (Argentina), Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia, Inovacoes e Comunicacoes (Brazil), and Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (Republic of Korea). This research has made use of the NASA Exoplanet Archive, which is operated by the California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under the Exoplanet Exploration Program. This work made use of the following Python packages: astropy (Astropy Collaboration 2013, 2018), lightkurve (Lightkurve Collaboration 2018), matplotlib (Hunter 2007), pandas (Wes McKinney 2010), seaborn (Waskom & The Seaborn Development team 2021), scipy (Virtanen et al. 2020) and numpy (Harris et al. 2020).Context. Large sub-Neptunes are uncommon around the coolest stars in the Galaxy and are rarer still around those that are metal-poor. However, owing to the large planet-to-star radius ratio, these planets are highly suitable for atmospheric study via transmission spectroscopy in the infrared, such as with JWST. Aims. Here we report the discovery and validation of a sub-Neptune orbiting the thick-disk, mid-M dwarf star TOI-2406. The star's low metallicity and the relatively large size and short period of the planet make TOI-2406 b an unusual outcome of planet formation, and its characterisation provides an important observational constraint for formation models. Methods. We first infer properties of the host star by analysing the star's near-infrared spectrum, spectral energy distribution, and Gaia parallax. We use multi-band photometry to confirm that the transit event is on-target and achromatic, and we statistically validate the TESS signal as a transiting exoplanet. We then determine physical properties of the planet through global transit modelling of the TESS and ground-based time-series data. Results. We determine the host to be a metal-poor M4 V star, located at a distance of 56 pc, with properties T-eff = 3100 +/- 75 K, M-* = 0.162 +/- 0.008M(circle dot), R-* = 0.202 +/- 0.011R(circle dot), and [Fe/H] = -0.38 +/- 0.07, and a member of the thick disk. The planet is a relatively large sub-Neptune for the M-dwarf planet population, with R-p = 2.94 +/- 0.17R(circle plus) and P= 3.077 d, producing transits of 2% depth. We note the orbit has a non-zero eccentricity to 3 sigma, prompting questions about the dynamical history of the system. Conclusions. This system is an interesting outcome of planet formation and presents a benchmark for large-planet formation around metal-poor, low-mass stars. The system warrants further study, in particular radial velocity follow-up to determine the planet mass and constrain possible bound companions. Furthermore, TOI-2406 b is a good target for future atmospheric study through transmission spectroscopy. Although the planet's mass remains to be constrained, we estimate the S/N using amass-radius relationship, ranking the system fifth in the population of large sub-Neptunes, with TOI-2406 b having a much lower equilibrium temperature than other spectroscopically accessible members of this population.Heising-Simons FoundationPrograma de Apoyo a Proyectos de Investigacion e Innovacion Tecnologica (PAPIIT)Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico IG-101321Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)European Commission PP00P2-163967 PP00P2-190080 P2BEP2_195285MIT's Kavli Institute as a Juan Carlos Torres FellowEuropean Research Council (ERC) nffi 803193/BEBOPMERAC foundationUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Science & Technology Facilities Council (STFC)Science and Technology Development Fund (STDF) nffi ST/S00193X/1MIT's Kavli Institute as a Kavli postdoctoral fellowSwiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)Australian Research CouncilFonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS FRFC 2.5.594.09.FSwiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)French Community of Belgium in the context of the FRIA Doctoral GrantNASA High-End Computing (HEC) Program through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) Division at Ames Research CenterNASA's Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration under the Exoplanet Exploration ProgramTESS GI program G03274National Science Foundation (NSF)Earths in Other Solar Systems Project (EOS)Alien Earths - NASA NNX15AD94G 80NSSC21K0593High-Resolution Imaging instrument Zorro (Gemini program) GS-2020B-LP-105NASA Exoplanet Exploration ProgramNational Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA)National Science Foundation (NSF

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio